Saturday, May 28, 2005

Dr. William Gray's Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast for 2005 - Updated May 31

Source: University of Colorado

Here are the numbers for Dr. Gray's May 31 update. Averages are in parentheses. Unfortunately, they have gone up:

Named Storms (9.6) -- 15
Named Storm Days (49.1) -- 75
Hurricanes (5.9) -- 8
Hurricane Days (24.5) -- 45
Intense Hurricanes (2.3) - 4
Intense Hurricane Days (5) -- 11
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%) - 170%

Probabilities for at least one intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 77% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 59% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean and in the Bahamas

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home