Thursday, May 19, 2005

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8

As of right now, the hurricane center is predicting the remnents of Tropical Storm Adrian to pass to the south of Florida, posing no threat to the state.

Source: National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

AS OF 8 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

...ADRIAN A LITTLE STRONGER...OUTER RAINBANDS ALREADY REACHING THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ADRIAN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL FLY INTO ADRIAN LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...12.5 N... 90.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

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