Saturday, June 11, 2005

000
WTNT31 KNHC 111439
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

...WINDS AND RAINS INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS THE CENTER OF ARLENE APPROACHES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
OCHLOCKNEE RIVER FLORIDA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

ARLENE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ARLENE FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.6 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

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