Friday, June 10, 2005

TS Arlene Public Advisory 10 - 5 p.m. EDT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 102042
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...LARGE ARLENE DRENCHING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM ST MARKS FLORIDA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND MOST OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ARLENE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

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