Saturday, June 11, 2005

TS Arlene Public Advisory 12A - 2 p.m.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 111737
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARLENE A LITTLE WEAKER...CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE DIMINISHING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER FLORIDA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA.

ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL HAS DECREASED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ARLENE FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...30.0 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

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