Friday, July 08, 2005

HURR Dennis Public Advisory 15 - 5 a.m.

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WTNT34 KNHC 080840
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DANNY FURY AIMS AT CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
440 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHER FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE
OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.7 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

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