Friday, July 08, 2005

HURR Dennis Public Advisory 16 - 11 a.m.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081434
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DENNIS NOW A STRONGER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE
CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES... 205 KM... WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 250 MILES... 405
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WHILE SOME WOBBLING HAS OCCURRED...AS IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR
HURRICANE...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE
OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.4 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

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