Friday, July 08, 2005

HURR Dennis Public Advisory 17B - 9 p.m.

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WTNT34 KNHC 090048
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHING HAVANA AND MATANZAS
IN WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
... 75 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR HAVANA AND MATANZAS AND
EMERGE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING
IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER CUBA. HOWEVER...DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IT EMERGES OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS...WITH THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH AT AN
ELEVATION OF 160 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 4
TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA.
HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A
STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A
STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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