Saturday, July 09, 2005

HURR Dennis Public Advisory 18A - 1 a.m.

For the latest on closings/evacuations, go to the Hurricane Dennis blog at http://hurricanedennis2005.blogspot.com.

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WTNT34 KNHC 090454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...EYE OF DENNIS MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AFTER CROSSING
HAVANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA MAY
BE DISCONTINUED SOON.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE
STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED BY THE
KEY WEST RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF HAVANA OR ABOUT ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE DENNIS AWAY FROM CUBA AND BRING THE CENTER
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA.
HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A
STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A
STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 82.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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