Thursday, July 14, 2005

HURR Emily Public Advisory 15 - 11 a.m. AST

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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