Thursday, July 14, 2005

HURR Emily Public Advisory 15A - 2 p.m.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 141741
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NEARLY CATEGORY THREE...

...AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CUMANA EASTWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM PUNTA SALINAS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 490
MILES... 795 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DECREASING.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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