Saturday, July 16, 2005

HURR Emily Public Advisory 22A - 8 a.m EDT

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WTNT35 KNHC 161144
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY BEGINNING TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA ...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 395
MILES... 635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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