Tuesday, August 09, 2005

TD IRENE Public Advisory 18 - 11 p.m. AST

Irene is forecast to go directly over Bermuda over this weekend. However, this morning, it was forecast to go to the east of Bermuda and this afternoon, it was forecast to go west of Bermuda, so take the forecast however you like.

The UKMET model has Irene going to the north and over Bermuda, while the BAMD and the BAMM models have Irene continuing westward and not turning northward. The GFDL model shows Irene fizzling out within a few days, however. So, it is still very much up in the air where Irene will go, so keep an eye on Irene for the time being. Below is the latest advisory:

-----------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090234
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005

...IRENE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N... 52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

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